2024-25 & 2025-26 seasons · Close games only (≤15pt margin entering Q4)
We tracked every NBA player with at least 30 close-game appearances over the past two seasons, comparing their Q4 output to their Q1-Q3 per-quarter average. The results reveal a consistent and exploitable pattern: some players reliably elevate when the game is on the line. Others quietly disappear.
Methodology: "Close game" = margin of 15 points or fewer entering Q4. Q1-Q3 baseline is per-quarter average (total ÷ 3), making it a true apples-to-apples comparison with Q4. Minimum 30 qualifying games required. Top and bottom 10 shown by selected metric.
Most consistent Q4 increase
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Biggest Q4 decrease
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Metric
Top 10 Q4 Increases / Bottom 10 Q4 Decreases
Click any bar to see season-by-season breakdown
Increases (+)Decreases (−)
Data: 2024-25 & 2025-26 NBA regular seasons. Close games defined as ≤15pt margin entering Q4. Minimum 30 qualifying appearances. · Subscribe for picks